Trumps gift to Putin?

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marshb
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Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by marshb » Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:56 am

Iran. After Jared Kushners visit to Saudi Arabia, the government cracks down on other royalty, then Saudi Arabia orders its citizens to leave Lebanon. If war is imminent this will drive Iran into Putins arms, the mullahs get to crack down on its citizens, and we lose the last relatively secular middle eastern country in the region.

Been following this line of thinking over on Contrary Brin. I do hope this doesn't pan out. :( What does everyone think. Could use a second (or third, fourth and fifth) opinion. So far I don't see any mainstream press (in the states) discussing this. Goddamn oligarchs!
Last edited by marshb on Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by marshb » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:29 am

A sample comment from Dr. Brin:

.... Surely some in our military and intel communities are putting these puzzle pieces together, about our looming War With Iran. DT's sudden swerve on N Korea and China preps the way, along with Kushner's Riyadh visit to the Crown Prince, followed immediately by the CP's putsch to eliminate all opposition. Then there's the coming tete-a-tete between DT and Putin, to take place without cameras in a communist dictatorship, and now the Saudis ordering all their citizens out of Lebanon... and quietly out of several other places, as well. I'll post about this tomorrow. But meanwhile remember who wants this: DT needs a distraction, the Saudis want all-out war, some Israelis (not the smart ones), Putin's economy will be rescued by skyrocketing oil prices, then he'll just step in with his umbrella and get Iran as a protectorate, while the mullahs crush their young modernists. Oh, please let me be wrong!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... sions-rise
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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Cpt. Awesome » Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:23 pm

marshb wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:56 am
What does everyone think. Could use a second (or third, fourth and fifth) opinion. So far I don't see any mainstream press (in the states) discussing this.
You're being lied to.

Saudi Arabia (SA) and their allies do not want all out war and are in fact playing key roles, through the GCC, in defeating ISIS and creating long lasting peace in the Middle East.

Newly discovered oil reserves around the world and extraction technology is making the oil sector too competitive. SA is making moves to move their economy off of an oil-based one; see http://vision2030.gov.sa/en.

In order to do so, they will also need foreign investment which would only happen if the region is stable and prosperous.

Things are changing for the better at light speed in the middle east, you just have to be willing to challenge any preconceived notions and biases to see it.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by fiendishrabbit » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:37 am

Considering their relations with Qatar and Lebanon they sure have a strange way of achieving "stability".
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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by marshb » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:17 am

1: I don't believe Dr Brinn is a liar, I'm just concerned about his analysis.

2: Saudi Arabia is in flux right now, I mean, what the hell is going on when Saudi princes are locking up a bunch of other princes. What policy by them can we trust/understand now? What kind of motives can we attribute to them under these circumstances? It's just plain concerning.

3: This ignores what Donald Trump/Putin motives are, which is what Dr Brinn has been focusing on. I mean, Russian influence has become a LOT more prevalent then it has been in several decades. It's been very successful in destabilising and/or distracting the west and elsewhere of late, so it can claw back territories like the Ukraine. For awhile they had a great deal of influence in Iraq before Hussain screwed up and/or was screwed over. Why not replace it with a regime that wants an excuse to screw over its largely secular population? Couldn't Putin then claim he's providing stability by being a friend to Iran AND reduce Americas influence in the bargain AND drive up oil prices which he needs desperately to do?

This doesn't negate what you said about there being segments of Saudi Arabia that aren't interested in what you say, but they are not the only interests in Saudi Arabia or the Middle East.
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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Cpt. Awesome » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:26 pm

marshb wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:17 am
1: I don't believe Dr Brinn is a liar, I'm just concerned about his analysis.
I disagree with the analysis. At worst he is lying. At best he is just ignorant and blind to evidence. Either way you are being misled.
marshb wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:17 am
2: Saudi Arabia is in flux right now, I mean, what the hell is going on when Saudi princes are locking up a bunch of other princes. What policy by them can we trust/understand now? What kind of motives can we attribute to them under these circumstances? It's just plain concerning.
Its not Saudi Princes locking up a bunch of other princes. It is the Crown Prince (and King) cleaning house. There is no such thing as a monolithic country; is USA just one political party or faction?. SA have their own factions, and some are only interested in maintaining status quo or the old ways that was holding back progress in the region.

A small sample of big changes happening over there in no particular order, any would've been unheard of even just 10 years ago:
- increasing rights for women (http://www.arabnews.com/node/1192141/saudi-arabia; https://www.khaleejtimes.com/region/sau ... was-report; https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/26/worl ... drive.html)
- reforming sharia law and wahabism away from extremism
- owning up to past (https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ing-214241)
marshb wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:17 am
3: This ignores what Donald Trump/Putin motives are, which is what Dr Brinn has been focusing on. I mean, Russian influence has become a LOT more prevalent then it has been in several decades. It's been very successful in destabilising and/or distracting the west and elsewhere of late, so it can claw back territories like the Ukraine. For awhile they had a great deal of influence in Iraq before Hussain screwed up and/or was screwed over. Why not replace it with a regime that wants an excuse to screw over its largely secular population? Couldn't Putin then claim he's providing stability by being a friend to Iran AND reduce Americas influence in the bargain AND drive up oil prices which he needs desperately to do?
The motive with North Korea is to denuclearize them, which even China and Russia have agreed to. With literally no one opposed, and the constant tightening of the economic noose around North Korea, it is just a matter of waiting the regime out. If they are foolish enough to continue, they will likely experience another "tunnel collapse" or "surface earthquake". If they attack, they will be crushed in short order. This isn't like decades ago where there was no military solution to all the artillery pieces.

Putin's motive is mostly to maintain power and controls russia like a mob boss. In part, Putin causes mischief in order to draw international pressure so he can rattle his saber for domestic consumption to maintain the power structure.

Saudi's want to evacuate citizens in Lebannon because the GCC has started gutting Hezbollah and they want to prevent any of their citizens from being kidnapped or used as human shields.

Isis is being mopped up, Mullah's tentacles are being removed and are just about gone from Iraq and Syria now. This is building to the removal of the Mullahs from power. Once Mullah's meddling is removed, even the stalemate in Yemen will finally see an end.

My response may be scattered, but that is because there is just too much to unpack in the initial and subsequent posts.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Mecron » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:20 am

Saudi Arabia is killing thousands of civilians using american weapons...maybe just unpack that one in relationship to the groovy.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by marshb » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:55 pm

Plus an embargo that threatens 7 million in Yemen via starvation.

Then there's the whole Wahabis extremism that funds a lot of the chaos in the middle east.

Still don't know why you would think David Brin is a liar tho. You know, the Author David Brin?!? The Scientist David Brin!? I mean, I get why you may disagree with him, (I think his views on Pax American are a bit too rosey by far) but he's not a liar by a long shot. ;)
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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Mecron » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:20 pm

Yeah having met the man I will say he can err on the side of boy scout world view often but he is pretty incapable of malicious lies. And for the past few years he has been standing up against the right people.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Cpt. Awesome » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:11 pm

Just to be clear, Marshb asked very sincerely and in good faith for some other opinions due to his concerns about geopolitical events in the world. I will do my best to give him just that, as I genuinely see tons of improvement and positive changes happening in the world today.

What I'm not interested in, is getting on a treadmill to chase after moving goal posts. You are all free and responsible for your own beliefs.
Mecron wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:20 am
Saudi Arabia is killing thousands of civilians using american weapons...maybe just unpack that one in relationship to the groovy.
For you Mec, what Saudis, alongside other coalition countries, and American weapons can achieve:

I do recommend reading the whole thing.
Copy-pasted from http://www.inherentresolve.mil/News/New ... ty-report/

"The Coalition conducted a total of 27,566 strikes that included 56,099 separate engagements between September 2014 and September 2017. During this period, the total number of reports of possible civilian casualties was 1,266. The total number of credible reports of civilian casualties during this time period was 194. The percent of engagements that resulted in a report of possible civilian casualties was 2.26%. The percent of engagements that resulted in a credible report of civilian casualties was .35%."

I've read, just as I'm sure you have, plenty of the same articles claiming that the liberation of ISIS held territory was going to create tens of thousands of civilian deaths. Especially with fortified and booby trapped urban battlescapes, where entire towns and villages are being used as human shields.

All these "experts" were clutching their pearls based on their outdated understanding. However, clearly there has been a big change and shift in military doctrine and capability considering the unprecedented low numbers of civilian deaths.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Cpt. Awesome » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:13 pm

marshb wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:55 pm
Still don't know why you would think David Brin is a liar tho. You know, the Author David Brin?!? The Scientist David Brin!? I mean, I get why you may disagree with him, (I think his views on Pax American are a bit too rosey by far) but he's not a liar by a long shot. ;)
I admit I don't know much about David Brin. I am basing my claim only on the analysis as presented. I already stated that I have no idea if its intentional or not, I'm just judging the end product "as is".

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Mecron » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:32 am

Ummm you do realize that link is to a HIGHLY biased source, right?

Also Saudi Arabia is NOT just attacking Isis strongholds with the alliance...you might want to read up on their lil solo outings.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Cpt. Awesome » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:21 pm

Mecron wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:32 am
Ummm you do realize that link is to a HIGHLY biased source, right?
Also Saudi Arabia is NOT just attacking Isis strongholds with the alliance...you might want to read up on their lil solo outings.
Why is it any more biased or less biased than the places you get your information from? How are you so sure your information or analysis is better? Short of observing events in person, eventually you have to go with your own judgement when trusting sources just like me. I just trust sources such as the Department of Defense more than "the Atlantic" or the other places you link to often (which I consider to be HIGHLY biased as well). That website isn't by far my only source that I use.

If you want to prove a point. I'll need more than blanket statements such as "they are killing thousands" or "your sources are highly biased". Where is your effort or analysis? Where are your arguments?

I could easily argue that my link is a less biased source than many media outlets available if you were willing to identify them.

How about the Pavlov's Democracy thread? You basically compared me to a "flat earther" for having concerns about Hillary's uranium deals and Podesta group's Russian ties LAST MARCH. Yet as far as I can see, all the latest news on those fronts is confirming my viewpoint more and more. You are of course free to continue calling me delusional, even up to and after the point where indictments are being leveled against them.

I stand by my assessment of observed improvement around the world. If you wish to believe otherwise, that is up to you, I don't require everyone to agree with me. However, if you wanted to discuss something specific, or prove a point, I'm sorry, but i'll need more than just a blanket statement.

Anyways, like I said initially, I got into this thread to provide a sincere opinion counter to the one provided by the original post at the request of Marshb. Not to change your mind about Saudi Arabia.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by marshb » Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:34 pm

Lol, The Defense Dept (also known as the Dept of War back during more honest times, well, before "the Public Relations" phenomena was fully formed anyways) is not the most transparent of institutions (the nature of the beast I suppose). Hell, like most creatures, it puffs itself up, bluffs and or with holds info it presents to its enemies (which in the case of democracies, its own citizenry often times). Not the best Institution to trust when it almost always needs to be opaque to its "enemies" even during "peace" despite the fact it's full of people just trying to serve their country. Maybe even more so.
Our lives are not our own. From womb to tomb, we are bound to others. Past and present. And by each crime and every kindness, we birth our future.

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Re: Trumps gift to Putin?

Post by Cpt. Awesome » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:51 pm

How are civilian casualty numbers from military actions that already happened a risk to their present and future operational security?

If we can agree it is full of people trying to serve their country, why would they just go along with a cover-up as you implied? How could anyone coerce so many to remain silent?

Civilian casualties are unacceptable in any just society, so why wouldn't the DoD be incentivized for decades to develop tactics and equipment that doesn't produce any?

If you have answers, be specific.

So many logical holes to ignore just to hold on to negative out dated biases.

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